# US GDP growth in Q4 2026?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "US GDP growth in Q4 2026?". Above 0.0% leads at 94%. Next is Above 0.5% at 92%. $92K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 29, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:15:00Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 29, 2027
- Volume traded: $92K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 0.0% | 94% | — | 94% | not on both |
| Above 0.5% | 92% | — | 92% | not on both |
| Above 1.0% | 90% | — | 90% | not on both |
| Above 1.5% | 87% | — | 87% | not on both |
| Above 2.0% | 75% | — | 75% | not on both |
| Above 2.5% | 61% | — | 61% | not on both |
| Above 3.0% | 52% | — | 52% | not on both |
| Above 3.5% | 34% | — | 34% | not on both |
| 2.0% to 2.5% | 21.5% | 21.5% | — | not on both |
| Above 4.0% | 20% | — | 20% | not on both |
| 4.0% | 13.5% | 13.5% | — | not on both |
| 1.5% to 2.0% | 12.1% | 12.1% | — | not on both |
| 3.5% to 4.0% | 10.5% | 10.5% | — | not on both |
| 3.0% to 3.5% | 9% | 9% | — | not on both |
| 2.5% to 3.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | — | not on both |
| 1.5% | 8% | 8% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled for January 28, 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2026
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgdp?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.