# US new home · Median sales price in October: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "US new home · Median sales price in October". Above $375,000 leads at 88%. Next is Above $380,000 at 82%. $2K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 25, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T18:40:00Z (2 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 25, 2026
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above $375,000 | 88% | 88% |
| Above $380,000 | 82% | 82% |
| Above $385,000 | 76% | 76% |
| Above $390,000 | 61% | 61% |
| Above $395,000 | 49% | 49% |
| Above $400,000 | 42% | 42% |
| Above $405,000 | 37% | 37% |
| Above $410,000 | 22% | 22% |
| Above $415,000 | 14% | 14% |
| Above $420,000 | 9% | 9% |
| Above $425,000 | 6% | 6% |
| Above $430,000 | 4% | 4% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [FRED Median New Home Price](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/us-new-home-median-sales-price-in-october
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxushome?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/us-new-home-median-sales-price-in-october

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.