# Utah's 2nd District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Utah's 2nd District margin of victory". Moore, 6+ pts leads at 92%. Next is Moore, 9+ pts at 86%. $25K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:10:00Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $25K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Moore, 6+ pts | 92% | — | 92% | not on both |
| Moore, 9+ pts | 86% | — | 86% | not on both |
| Moore, 12+ pts | 81% | — | 81% | not on both |
| Moore, 21+ pts | 49.3% | — | 49.3% | not on both |
| Moore, 33+ pts | 49.2% | — | 49.2% | not on both |
| Moore, 36+ pts | 49.2% | — | 49.2% | not on both |
| Moore, 18+ pts | 48.8% | — | 48.8% | not on both |
| Republican 20-25% | 46% | 46% | — | not on both |
| Moore, 27+ pts | 42% | — | 42% | not on both |
| Republican 15-20% | 38.5% | 38.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 25-30% | 38.5% | 38.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 5-15% | 35.4% | 35.4% | — | not on both |
| Moore, 24+ pts | 23% | — | 23% | not on both |
| Moore, 30+ pts | 15% | — | 15% | not on both |
| Republican 45%+ | 13.3% | 13.3% | — | not on both |
| Moore, 15+ pts | 7% | — | 7% | not on both |
| Democrat Wins | 5.2% | 5.2% | — | not on both |
| Republican 0-5% | 4% | 4% | — | not on both |
| Republican 30-35% | 3.6% | 3.6% | — | not on both |
| Republican 40-45% | 2.8% | 2.8% | — | not on both |
| Republican 35-40% | 1.6% | 1.6% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Utah Lieutenant Governor’s Office](https://ltgovernor.utah.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/utahs-2nd-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ut-02-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/utahs-2nd-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.