# Utah's 3rd District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Utah's 3rd District margin of victory". Maloy, 22+ pts leads at 93.9%. Next is Maloy, 25+ pts at 75%. $40K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:07:17Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $40K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Maloy, 22+ pts | 93.9% | — | 93.9% | not on both |
| Maloy, 25+ pts | 75% | — | 75% | not on both |
| Maloy, 19+ pts | 50.7% | — | 50.7% | not on both |
| Maloy, 34+ pts | 49.5% | — | 49.5% | not on both |
| Maloy, 37+ pts | 49.5% | — | 49.5% | not on both |
| Maloy, 49+ pts | 49.5% | — | 49.5% | not on both |
| Maloy, 28+ pts | 49.4% | — | 49.4% | not on both |
| Maloy, 43+ pts | 49.4% | — | 49.4% | not on both |
| Maloy, 31+ pts | 49% | — | 49% | not on both |
| Republican 10-20% | 42.2% | 42.2% | — | not on both |
| Republican 40-45% | 42.1% | 42.1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 20-25% | 39.9% | 39.9% | — | not on both |
| Republican 45-50% | 38.2% | 38.2% | — | not on both |
| Republican 25-30% | 37% | 37% | — | not on both |
| Republican 30-35% | 18% | 18% | — | not on both |
| Maloy, 40+ pts | 12% | — | 12% | not on both |
| Republican 35-40% | 10% | 10% | — | not on both |
| Maloy, 46+ pts | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| Republican 50%+ | 0.7% | 0.7% | — | not on both |
| Republican 0-10% | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Democrat Wins | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Utah Lieutenant Governor’s Office](https://ltgovernor.utah.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/utahs-3rd-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ut-03-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/utahs-3rd-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.