# Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly Election Winner: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly Election Winner". BJP-led NDA leads at 83%. Next is BJP-led NDA at 82%. $8K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T00:17:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Apr 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $8K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BJP-led NDA | 83% | 83% | — | not on both |
| BJP-led NDA | 82% | — | 82% | not on both |
| SP-Congress alliance | 24% | — | 24% | not on both |
| SP | 15.5% | 15.5% | — | not on both |
| Bahujan Samaj Party | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| BSP | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| INC | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Election Commission of India](https://results.eci.gov.in/).

## Settlement rules

Legislative Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in Uttar Pradesh, India, in February–March 2027.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election.

Independent candidates will not be considered for resolution.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/uttar-pradesh-legislative-assembly-election-winner
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/uttar-pradesh-legislative-assembly-election-winner?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxupassembly?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/uttar-pradesh-legislative-assembly-election-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.