# Vermont Democratic presidential primary winner?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Vermont Democratic presidential primary winner?". Jon Ossoff leads at 22%. Next is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 19.1%. $48K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T05:45:40Z (7 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 7, 2028
- Volume traded: $48K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Jon Ossoff | 22% | 30.5% | 20% | — |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 19.1% | 4.1% | 20% | — |
| Gavin Newsom | 8.6% | 3.8% | 12.5% | — |
| Raphael Warnock | 6.7% | 16% | 4% | — |
| Kamala Harris | 5.7% | 11.5% | 5% | — |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.2% | 2.1% | 6.5% | — |
| Andy Beshear | 5.1% | 0.5% | 5% | — |
| Josh Shapiro | 3.4% | 0.3% | 5% | — |
| Stephen A. Smith | 3.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |
| Jon Stewart | 3.1% | 4.3% | — | not on both |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 2.9% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Wes Moore | 2.7% | 3.8% | 2% | — |
| J.B. Pritzker | 2.3% | 3% | — | not on both |
| Mark Kelly | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2% | — |
| Cory Booker | 1.9% | 2.6% | — | not on both |
| James Talarico | 1.7% | 0.3% | 2% | — |
| Michelle Obama | 1.2% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Roy Cooper | 0.9% | 0.4% | — | not on both |
| Ro Khanna | 0.8% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Bernie Sanders | 0.7% | 0.4% | — | not on both |
| Rahm Emanuel | 0.6% | 0.3% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Vermont Secretary of State](https://sos.vermont.gov/elections/), [Associated Press](https://apnews.com), [Decision Desk HQ](https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/vermont-democratic-presidential-primary-winner
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nevada-presidential-democratic-primary-winner-202610280?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdpresprimary?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/vermont-democratic-presidential-primary-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.