# West Virginia's 1st District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "West Virginia's 1st District margin of victory". Miller, 27+ pts leads at 76%. Next is Miller, 30+ pts at 72%. $23K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:25:00Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $23K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Miller, 27+ pts | 76% | — | 76% | not on both |
| Miller, 30+ pts | 72% | — | 72% | not on both |
| Miller, 33+ pts | 52% | — | 52% | not on both |
| Republican 15-20% | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Miller, 24+ pts | 48.9% | — | 48.9% | not on both |
| Republican 25-30% | 46.4% | 46.4% | — | not on both |
| Republican 35-40% | 43.8% | 43.8% | — | not on both |
| Republican 30-35% | 43% | 43% | — | not on both |
| Miller, 45+ pts | 15% | — | 15% | not on both |
| Miller, 42+ pts | 14% | — | 14% | not on both |
| Miller, 21+ pts | 9% | — | 9% | not on both |
| Miller, 48+ pts | 7.3% | — | 7.3% | not on both |
| Republican 40-45% | 6.5% | 6.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 45%+ | 3.8% | 3.8% | — | not on both |
| Miller, 36+ pts | 3.1% | — | 3.1% | not on both |
| Miller, 39+ pts | 3.1% | — | 3.1% | not on both |
| Republican 20-25% | 2.1% | 2.1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 5-15% | 1.6% | 1.6% | — | not on both |
| Democrat Wins | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 0-5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [West Virginia Secretary of State](https://sos.wv.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/west-virginias-1st-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/wv-01-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/west-virginias-1st-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.