# What caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "What caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop?". November 15, 12:00 AM ET leads at 96.5%. Next is November 14, 12:00 PM ET at 89.5%. $110K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T22:48:31Z (8 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $110K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| November 15, 12:00 AM ET | 96.5% | 96.5% | — | not on both |
| November 14, 12:00 PM ET | 89.5% | 89.5% | — | not on both |
| Any specific cause confirmed | 83% | — | 83% | not on both |
| Equipment or system failure | 75% | — | 75% | not on both |
| Software or configuration error | 72% | — | 72% | not on both |
| November 14, 12:00 AM ET | 67.5% | 67.5% | — | not on both |
| SMART AI system | 60% | — | 60% | not on both |
| Cyberattack | 50.5% | — | 50.5% | not on both |
| Jamming or sabotage | 50.5% | — | 50.5% | not on both |
| Human error | 47% | — | 47% | not on both |
| November 13, 10:00 PM ET | 46.5% | 46.5% | — | not on both |
| Telecom carrier or contractor fault | 32% | — | 32% | not on both |
| November 13, 8:00 PM ET | 29.5% | 29.5% | — | not on both |
| Maintenance or upgrade work | 13% | — | 13% | not on both |
| AI tool or agent error | 12% | — | 12% | not on both |
| Cable cut or physical damage | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| November 13, 6:00 PM ET | 2.1% | 2.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/), [the Associated Press](https://apnews.com/), [Bloomberg News](https://www.bloomberg.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/what-caused-the-faas-nationwide-ground-stop
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nationwide-ground-stop-lifted-byptptpt?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgroundstopcause?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/what-caused-the-faas-nationwide-ground-stop

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.