# What countries will Trump say in November?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "What countries will Trump say in November?". Germany / German leads at 99.5%. Next is Mexico / Mexican at 99.5%. $42K has traded across 80 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:18:00Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $42K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Germany / German | 99.5% | — | 99.5% | not on both |
| Mexico / Mexican | 99.5% | — | 99.5% | not on both |
| Saudi Arabia / Saudi Arabian | 99.5% | — | 99.5% | not on both |
| South Korea / South Korean | 99.5% | — | 99.5% | not on both |
| Transgender | 99.1% | 99.1% | — | not on both |
| Afghanistan / Afghan | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Congo / Congolese | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Cuba / Cuban | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Denmark / Danish | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| France / French | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Israel | 99% | 99% | — | not on both |
| Japan / Japanese | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Poland / Polish | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Somalia / Somali | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Congo / Congolese | 98.7% | 98.7% | — | not on both |
| Bibi | 98.6% | 98.6% | — | not on both |
| Colombia / Colombian | 98% | — | 98% | not on both |
| Egypt / Egyptian | 98% | — | 98% | not on both |
| North Korea / North Korean | 98% | — | 98% | not on both |
| Italy / Italian | 97% | — | 97% | not on both |
| Spain / Spanish | 97% | — | 97% | not on both |
| Yemen / Yemeni | 94% | — | 94% | not on both |
| India / Indian | 87.5% | — | 87.5% | not on both |
| Keep America Great | 87.5% | 87.5% | — | not on both |
| United Kingdom / British | 87.5% | — | 87.5% | not on both |
| Qatar / Qatari | 87% | — | 87% | not on both |
| Norway / Norwegian | 85.5% | — | 85.5% | not on both |
| Brazil / Brazilian | 85% | — | 85% | not on both |
| Ireland / Irish | 85% | — | 85% | not on both |
| Argentina / Argentinian | 84% | — | 84% | not on both |
| Australia / Australian | 83% | — | 83% | not on both |
| UAE / United Arab Emirates | 83% | — | 83% | not on both |
| Turkey / Turkish | 79% | — | 79% | not on both |
| Space Force | 78.5% | 78.5% | — | not on both |
| Taiwan / Taiwanese | 78% | — | 78% | not on both |
| Palestine / Palestinian | 69% | — | 69% | not on both |
| Shut Up | 68.5% | 68.5% | — | not on both |
| Clown | 64% | 64% | — | not on both |
| Switzerland / Swiss | 61% | — | 61% | not on both |
| Gay | 58.5% | 58.5% | — | not on both |

Showing the top 40 of 80 outcomes. 
"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ABC](https://abcnews.go.com/), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/), [MSNBC](https://www.msnbc.com/).

## Settlement rules

Kalshi event status: open

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/what-countries-will-trump-say-in-november
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-in-november-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaycountry?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/what-countries-will-trump-say-in-november

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.