# What will Marco Rubio say during Federalist Society speech?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "What will Marco Rubio say during Federalist Society speech?". Sovereign / Sovereignty leads at 73%. Next is Communist / Communism at 70%. $2K has traded across 26 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 27, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T20:49:31Z (12 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 27, 2026
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Sovereign / Sovereignty | 73% | 73% |
| Communist / Communism | 70% | 70% |
| Sanction | 66% | 66% |
| Constitution / Constitutional | 64% | 64% |
| China / Chinese | 56% | 56% |
| Trump (3+ times) | 45% | 45% |
| Cuba / Cuban | 42% | 42% |
| Supreme Court | 41% | 41% |
| Israel / Israeli | 37% | 37% |
| National Security | 36% | 36% |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | 26% | 26% |
| NATO | 24% | 24% |
| Tariff | 21% | 21% |
| America First | 17% | 17% |
| Russia / Russian | 15% | 15% |
| Venezuela / Maduro | 13% | 13% |
| Democrat | 12% | 12% |
| Iran (3+ times) | 11% | 11% |
| 2028 / Campaign | 8% | 8% |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Ceasefire | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Nuclear | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Jensen / Nvidia | 4% | 4% |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 4% | 4% |
| Event does not qualify | 1% | 1% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ABC](https://abcnews.go.com/), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/), [MSNBC](https://www.msnbc.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/what-will-marco-rubio-say-during-federalist-society-speech
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrubiomention?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/what-will-marco-rubio-say-during-federalist-society-speech

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.