# What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in November 2026?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in November 2026?". 770 leads at 89.5%. Next is 760 at 75%. $24K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:20:00Z (4 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $24K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 770 | 89.5% | 89.5% |
| 760 | 75% | 75% |
| 780 | 63.5% | 63.5% |
| 750 | 48% | 48% |
| 790 | 36.5% | 36.5% |
| 740 | 29% | 29% |
| 730 | 22% | 22% |
| 800 | 16.5% | 16.5% |
| 720 | 13.5% | 13.5% |
| 710 | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| 700 | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| 810 | 6% | 6% |
| 830 | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| 820 | 3% | 3% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [pythdata.app](https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD).

## Settlement rules

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in November 2026?

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/what-will-sp-500-spy-hit-in-november-2026
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-spy-hit-in-november-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/what-will-sp-500-spy-hit-in-november-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.