# What will Trump say in November?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "What will Trump say in November?". Dividend / Stimulus leads at 99%. Next is E15 at 99%. $59K has traded across 35 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:10:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $59K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Dividend / Stimulus | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| E15 | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Eli Lilly | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| UFC | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Filibuster | 98% | — | 98% | not on both |
| Zohran / Mamdani | 91% | — | 91% | not on both |
| Aluminum | 90% | — | 90% | not on both |
| Keep America Great | 87% | 87% | — | not on both |
| Ceasefire | 86% | — | 86% | not on both |
| Space Force | 78.5% | 78.5% | — | not on both |
| Shut Up | 68.5% | 68.5% | — | not on both |
| Rare Earth | 67% | — | 67% | not on both |
| TrumpRx | 66% | — | 66% | not on both |
| Nvidia | 65% | — | 65% | not on both |
| Clown | 64% | 64% | — | not on both |
| Ozempic / GLP-1 | 61% | — | 61% | not on both |
| Gay | 59% | 59% | — | not on both |
| Autism | 57.8% | 45% | 62% | 17.0 pts |
| Nazi | 54.5% | 54.5% | — | not on both |
| Refinance / Refinanced / Refinancing | 54% | — | 54% | not on both |
| Third Term | 51% | 51% | — | not on both |
| Refund | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Prediction | 47% | 47% | — | not on both |
| Shark | 46.5% | 46.5% | — | not on both |
| Peace in the Middle East | 46% | 46% | — | not on both |
| Whistleblower | 45% | — | 45% | not on both |
| Golden Dome | 43.8% | 49.5% | 38% | 11.5 pts |
| Make Iran Great Again | 41% | 41% | — | not on both |
| SMR / Small Modular Reactor | 33% | — | 33% | not on both |
| Stablecoin | 32% | — | 32% | not on both |
| Epstein | 28.5% | 28.5% | — | not on both |
| Manufactured Housing | 21% | — | 21% | not on both |
| Peptide | 13% | — | 13% | not on both |
| Rocket Man | 11.5% | 11.5% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ABC](https://abcnews.go.com/), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/), [MSNBC](https://www.msnbc.com/).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A 'mention' will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/what-will-trump-say-in-november-1
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-in-november-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/what-will-trump-say-in-november-1

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.