# What will Trump say in November?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "What will Trump say in November?". Dividend / Stimulus leads at 99%. Next is E15 at 99%. $59K has traded across 35 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:18:00Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $59K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Dividend / Stimulus | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| E15 | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Eli Lilly | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Filibuster | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| UFC | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Zohran / Mamdani | 91% | — | 91% | not on both |
| Aluminum | 90% | — | 90% | not on both |
| Keep America Great | 87.5% | 87.5% | — | not on both |
| Ceasefire | 86% | — | 86% | not on both |
| Space Force | 78.5% | 78.5% | — | not on both |
| Shut Up | 68.5% | 68.5% | — | not on both |
| Rare Earth | 68% | — | 68% | not on both |
| TrumpRx | 65% | — | 65% | not on both |
| Clown | 64% | 64% | — | not on both |
| Nvidia | 61% | — | 61% | not on both |
| Gay | 58.5% | 58.5% | — | not on both |
| Autism | 57.8% | 45% | 62% | 17.0 pts |
| Nazi | 54.5% | 54.5% | — | not on both |
| Refinance / Refinanced / Refinancing | 54% | — | 54% | not on both |
| Third Term | 51% | 51% | — | not on both |
| Ozempic / GLP-1 | 50% | — | 50% | not on both |
| Refund | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Prediction | 47% | 47% | — | not on both |
| Shark | 46.5% | 46.5% | — | not on both |
| Peace in the Middle East | 45.5% | 45.5% | — | not on both |
| Whistleblower | 45% | — | 45% | not on both |
| Make Iran Great Again | 41% | 41% | — | not on both |
| Golden Dome | 35.8% | 40.5% | 31% | 9.5 pts |
| SMR / Small Modular Reactor | 33% | — | 33% | not on both |
| Stablecoin | 32% | — | 32% | not on both |
| Epstein | 28.5% | 28.5% | — | not on both |
| Manufactured Housing | 21% | — | 21% | not on both |
| Peptide | 13% | — | 13% | not on both |
| Rocket Man | 11.5% | 11.5% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ABC](https://abcnews.go.com/), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/), [MSNBC](https://www.msnbc.com/).

## Settlement rules

Kalshi event status: open

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/what-will-trump-say-in-november
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-in-november-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/what-will-trump-say-in-november

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.