# When will chip export restrictions become U.S. law?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "When will chip export restrictions become U.S. law?". Before Jan 1, 2028 leads at 68%. Next is Before Jul 1, 2027 at 39%. $3K has traded across 3 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-11T09:03:05Z (9 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2028
- Volume traded: $3K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 68% | 68% |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 39% | 39% |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 30% | 30% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Library of Congress](https://www.congress.gov/), [The White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/when-will-chip-export-restrictions-become-us-law
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxchipexportlaw?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/when-will-chip-export-restrictions-become-us-law

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.