# When will Gemini Carbon be released?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "When will Gemini Carbon be released?". November 9–November 15 leads at 77.7%. Next is November 16–November 22 at 11.8%. $168K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 9, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:56:00Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 9, 2026
- Volume traded: $168K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| November 9–November 15 | 77.7% | 73.5% |
| November 16–November 22 | 11.8% | 11.2% |
| November 2–November 8 | 6.3% | 6% |
| November 23–November 29 | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| November 30–December 6 | 1.5% | 1.4% |
| No release by January 3 | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| December 7–December 13 | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| December 14–December 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| December 21–December 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| December 28–January 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which "Carbon", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.

A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/when-will-gemini-carbon-be-released
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-gemini-carbon-be-released-20261027?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/when-will-gemini-carbon-be-released

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.