# When will P vs NP be resolved?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "When will P vs NP be resolved?". Before 2040 leads at 49%. Next is Before 2035 at 38%. $5K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 7, 2040.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:50:00Z (3 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 7, 2040
- Volume traded: $5K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Before 2040 | 49% | 49% |
| Before 2035 | 38% | 38% |
| Before 2030 | 29% | 29% |
| Before 2029 | 19% | 19% |
| Before 2028 | 14% | 14% |
| Before 2027 | 4% | 4% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/), [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/), [Science](https://www.science.org/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/when-will-p-vs-np-be-resolved
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpnp?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/when-will-p-vs-np-be-resolved

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.