# When will the first listed Democrat announce a 2028 presidential run?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "When will the first listed Democrat announce a 2028 presidential run?". Before Jan 1, 2028 leads at 97.5%. Next is Before Sep 1, 2027 at 97.5%. $288K has traded across 81 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-11T09:02:05Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2028
- Volume traded: $288K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 97.5% | — | 97.5% | not on both |
| Before Sep 1, 2027 | 97.5% | — | 97.5% | not on both |
| Before Jun 1, 2027 | 96.5% | — | 96.5% | not on both |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 95.5% | — | 95.5% | not on both |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 95.5% | — | 95.5% | not on both |
| J.B. Pritzker | 85% | 85% | — | not on both |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 81% | — | 81% | not on both |
| Pete Buttigieg | 78.2% | 97.9% | — | not on both |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 75% | — | 75% | not on both |
| Wes Moore | 74% | 74% | — | not on both |
| Chris Christie | 72.5% | 72.5% | — | not on both |
| Cory Booker | 67.5% | 67.5% | — | not on both |
| Josh Shapiro | 65.7% | 85% | — | not on both |
| Ron DeSantis | 63.4% | 90.5% | — | not on both |
| Ted Cruz | 62.6% | 83% | — | not on both |
| Brian Kemp | 60.5% | 60.5% | — | not on both |
| Raphael Warnock | 60% | 60% | — | not on both |
| Rahm Emanuel | 59.9% | 82.5% | — | not on both |
| J.D. Vance | 57.9% | 72% | — | not on both |
| Gavin Newsom | 57.5% | 83% | — | not on both |
| Andy Beshear | 52.1% | 91.3% | — | not on both |
| Mark Kelly | 52% | 52% | — | not on both |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 51% | 51% | — | not on both |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 46% | 60% | — | not on both |
| Marco Rubio | 45.9% | 58% | — | not on both |
| Kamala Harris | 45% | 58.5% | — | not on both |
| Jon Ossoff | 44.6% | 59% | — | not on both |
| Matt Gaetz | 40% | 40% | — | not on both |
| Glenn Youngkin | 36.5% | 48% | — | not on both |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 36% | 36% | — | not on both |
| Andrew Yang | 30.5% | 30.5% | — | not on both |
| Josh Hawley | 28% | 28% | — | not on both |
| Phil Murphy | 27% | 27% | — | not on both |
| Jared Polis | 26.5% | 26.5% | — | not on both |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 26% | — | 26% | not on both |
| Hunter Biden | 26% | 26% | — | not on both |
| Steve Bannon | 24% | 24% | — | not on both |
| Elise Stefanik | 23.5% | 23.5% | — | not on both |
| Nikki Haley | 23.5% | 23.5% | — | not on both |
| Rand Paul | 23% | 58% | — | not on both |

Showing the top 40 of 81 outcomes. 
"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/), [the Associated Press](https://apnews.com/), [Bloomberg News](https://www.bloomberg.com/news).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/when-will-the-first-listed-democrat-announce-a-2028-presidential-run
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-of-these-democrats-will-be-the-first-to-announce-a-run-for-president-20260709150125604?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresrunfirstd?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/when-will-the-first-listed-democrat-announce-a-2028-presidential-run

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.