# When will the Knesset elect a Speaker?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "When will the Knesset elect a Speaker?". December 31 leads at 95.6%. Next is November 30 at 95.5%. $44K has traded across 30 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T04:10:40Z (10 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $44K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| December 31 | 95.6% | 95.6% | — | not on both |
| November 30 | 95.5% | 95.5% | — | not on both |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 92% | — | 92% | not on both |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 91% | — | 91% | not on both |
| Before Nov 18, 2026 | 90% | — | 90% | not on both |
| Matan Kahana | 88% | 88% | — | not on both |
| Hili Tropper | 4.8% | 4.8% | — | not on both |
| Gadi Eisenkot | 3.2% | 3.2% | — | not on both |
| Before Nov 13, 2026 | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Yair Lapid | 2.7% | 2.7% | — | not on both |
| November 13 | 1.6% | 1.6% | — | not on both |
| Amir Ohana | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Oded Forer | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Naftali Bennett | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Orna Barbivai | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Elazar Stern | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |
| Gilad Kariv | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |
| No speaker by Feb 28 | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |
| Orit Farkash-Hacohen | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |
| Ahmad Tibi | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Avi Dichter | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| David Amsalem | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Eitan Ginzburg | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Eli Cohen | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Merav Ben Ari | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Mickey Levy | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Miki Zohar | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Ofir Katz | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Yariv Levin | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Yuli Edelstein | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [The Knesset](https://main.knesset.gov.il/en/Pages/default.aspx).

## Settlement rules

Kalshi event status: open

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/when-will-the-knesset-elect-a-speaker
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-knesset-elect-a-new-speaker-by-december-31-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxisrspeakerdate?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/when-will-the-knesset-elect-a-speaker

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.