# When will the S&P 500 Index be above $10,000?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "When will the S&P 500 Index be above $10,000?". Before Dec 31, 2029 leads at 33%. Next is Before Dec 31, 2028 at 20%. $1K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Sep 23, 2030.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-06T20:23:12Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Sep 23, 2030
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Before Dec 31, 2029 | 33% | 33% |
| Before Dec 31, 2028 | 20% | 20% |
| Before Jun 30, 2028 | 14% | 14% |
| Before Dec 31, 2027 | 4% | 4% |
| Before Jun 30, 2027 | 3% | 3% |
| Before Dec 31, 2026 | 1.5% | 1.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [For example, Google Finance](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?hl=en).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/when-will-the-sp-500-index-be-above-10000
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsp500when?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/when-will-the-sp-500-index-be-above-10000

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.