# When will Trump and Flávio Bolsonaro meet?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "When will Trump and Flávio Bolsonaro meet?". China leads at 85.5%. Next is Before Jan 1, 2027 at 30%. $2.5M has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:20:00Z (2 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $2.5M
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| China | 85.5% | 85.5% | — | not on both |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 30% | — | 30% | not on both |
| Yes | 20.3% | 25.5% | — | not on both |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 18% | — | 18% | not on both |
| No meeting by December 31 | 10.5% | 10.5% | — | not on both |
| United States | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Russia | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |
| Gulf country | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |
| Switzerland | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |
| Turkey | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |
| Australia | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Belarus | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Finland | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Japan | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Other EU country | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| South Korea | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Ukraine | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/), [The White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov), [Associated Press](https://apnews.com).

## Settlement rules

Kalshi event status: open

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/when-will-trump-and-flávio-bolsonaro-meet
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-putin-and-zelensky-meet-together-before-2027?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpflaviomeet?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/when-will-trump-and-flávio-bolsonaro-meet

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.