# When will Trump release more UFO files?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "When will Trump release more UFO files?". December 31 leads at 78.9%. Next is Before Jan 1, 2027 at 75%. $105K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-08T14:42:00Z (10 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $105K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| December 31 | 78.9% | 78.9% | — | not on both |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 75% | — | 75% | not on both |
| November 30 | 59% | 59% | — | not on both |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 49% | — | 49% | not on both |
| Before Nov 15, 2026 | 12% | — | 12% | not on both |
| November 15 | 8.5% | 8.5% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/), [MSNBC](https://www.msnbc.com/), [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/when-will-trump-release-more-ufo-files
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-declassifies-new-ufo-files-byptptpt-20261026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxuapfiles?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/when-will-trump-release-more-ufo-files

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.