# Where will Democrats win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Where will Democrats win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?". Illinois House leads at 98%. Next is Colorado House at 60%. $7K has traded across 24 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:04:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $7K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Illinois House | 98% | 98% |
| Colorado House | 60% | 60% |
| California Senate | 50% | 50% |
| Delaware Senate | 50% | 50% |
| Nevada Assembly | 50% | 50% |
| California Senate | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| Delaware House | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| Maine Senate | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| Nevada Senate | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| Nevada Senate | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| New Mexico House | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| Washington Senate | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| Oregon House | 49% | 49% |
| Oregon Senate | 49% | 49% |
| California Assembly | 48.5% | 48.5% |
| Hawaii Senate | 48.5% | 48.5% |
| Illinois Senate | 48.5% | 48.5% |
| Maine Senate | 48.5% | 48.5% |
| California Senate | 48% | 48% |
| Colorado House | 48% | 48% |
| Nevada Assembly | 47.5% | 47.5% |
| Vermont Senate | 46% | 46% |
| Vermont House | 45% | 45% |
| Washington House | 28% | 28% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [California Secretary of State](https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections), [Colorado Secretary of State](https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/elections/), [Connecticut Secretary of the State](https://portal.ct.gov/sots/election-services).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/where-will-democrats-win-state-legislative-supermajorities-in-2026
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdemstatesupermaj?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/where-will-democrats-win-state-legislative-supermajorities-in-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.