# Where will it rain on Nov 12, 2026?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Where will it rain on Nov 12, 2026?". Atlanta leads at 99.1%. Next is Boston at 99%. $1.0M has traded across 35 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 13, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T04:24:40Z (10 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 13, 2026
- Volume traded: $1.0M
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: climate

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Atlanta | 99.1% | 99.5% | 99% | 0.5 pts |
| Boston | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Columbus | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Indianapolis | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Lexington | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| New York City | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Newark | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Pittsburgh | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Providence | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Trenton | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Philadelphia | 96% | 86.9% | 99% | 12.1 pts |
| San Francisco | 10.1% | 25.5% | 5% | 20.5 pts |
| Dallas | 9% | 32.9% | 1% | 31.9 pts |
| Washington DC | 7% | 22% | 2% | 20.0 pts |
| Chicago | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Los Angeles | 4.7% | 6.8% | 4% | 2.8 pts |
| Miami | 3.4% | 10.5% | 1% | 9.5 pts |
| Albuquerque | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Austin | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| College Station | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Denver | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Detroit | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Las Vegas | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Milwaukee | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Minneapolis | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Oklahoma City | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| San Antonio | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Seattle | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Springfield | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| St. Louis | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Tampa | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| West Palm Beach | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Houston | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1% | 0.5 pts |
| New Orleans | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1% | 0.5 pts |
| Phoenix, AZ | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [forecast.weather.gov](https://forecast.weather.gov/product_sites.php?site=NWS&product=CLI).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [The Weather Company](https://weather.com/kalshi).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/where-will-it-rain-on-nov-12-2026
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-it-rain-on-november-12-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrain?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/where-will-it-rain-on-nov-12-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.