# Where will it rain on Nov 14, 2026?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Where will it rain on Nov 14, 2026?". San Francisco leads at 99.1%. Next is Albuquerque at 99%. $757K has traded across 23 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 15, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T05:34:41Z (9 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 15, 2026
- Volume traded: $757K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: climate

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| San Francisco | 99.1% | 99.6% | 99% | 0.6 pts |
| Albuquerque | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Austin | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| College Station | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Oklahoma City | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| San Antonio | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Seattle | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Los Angeles | 98.7% | 98% | 99% | 1.0 pts |
| Dallas | 89.9% | 62.5% | 99% | 36.5 pts |
| Washington DC | 49.5% | 49.5% | — | not on both |
| Houston | 4.3% | 2.1% | 5% | 2.9 pts |
| New Orleans | 1% | 1.1% | 1% | 0.1 pts |
| Chicago | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Denver | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Las Vegas | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Milwaukee | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Minneapolis | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Springfield | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| St. Louis | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Miami, FL | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Philadelphia, PA | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Phoenix, AZ | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Atlanta, GA | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [forecast.weather.gov](https://forecast.weather.gov/product_sites.php?site=NWS&product=CLI).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [The Weather Company](https://weather.com/kalshi).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/where-will-it-rain-on-nov-14-2026
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-it-rain-on-november-14-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrain?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/where-will-it-rain-on-nov-14-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.