# Which companies added to S&P 500 in Q4 2026?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Which companies added to S&P 500 in Q4 2026?". Cheniere Energy (LNG) leads at 43%. Next is Rocket Companies (RKT) at 39.5%. $18K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:19:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $18K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Cheniere Energy (LNG) | 43% | 43% |
| Rocket Companies (RKT) | 39.5% | 39.5% |
| SoFi Technologies (SOFI) | 37% | 37% |
| Credo Technology (CRDO) | 26% | 26% |
| Astera Labs (ALAB) | 25% | 25% |
| MongoDB (MDB) | 25% | 25% |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) | 14% | 14% |
| Affirm Holdings (AFRM) | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| HEICO (HEI) | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Medline (MDLN) | 5.2% | 5.2% |
| Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) | 2.5% | 2.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. The next rebalance is currently scheduled for December 18, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that the listed company will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the listed ticker must match the announced ticker added to the index.

An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/which-companies-added-to-sp-500-in-q4-2026
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-companies-added-to-sp-500-in-q4-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/which-companies-added-to-sp-500-in-q4-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.