# Which company has the best AI Agent end of January?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Which company has the best AI Agent end of January?". Anthropic leads at 70.9%. Next is OpenAI at 15.9%. $1.2M has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T19:12:28Z (2 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Feb 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $1.2M
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Anthropic | 70.9% | 52.5% | 77% | 24.5 pts |
| OpenAI | 15.9% | 21.5% | 14% | 7.5 pts |
| Google | 7.6% | 15.5% | 5% | 10.5 pts |
| Moonshot | 6.5% | 6.5% | — | not on both |
| Xiaomi | 6.2% | 6.2% | — | not on both |
| Meta | 6.2% | 6.2% | — | not on both |
| MiniMax | 6% | 6% | — | not on both |
| Nvidia | 5.3% | 5.3% | — | not on both |
| Mistral | 5.2% | 5.2% | — | not on both |
| ByteDance | 4.8% | 4.8% | — | not on both |
| Tencent | 4.3% | 4.3% | — | not on both |
| Meituan | 3.7% | 3.7% | — | not on both |
| Amazon | 3.5% | 3.5% | — | not on both |
| Microsoft | 3% | 3% | — | not on both |
| Z.ai | 2.3% | 6.2% | 1% | 5.1 pts |
| xAI | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| DeepSeek | 2% | 4.9% | 1% | 3.9 pts |
| Alibaba | 1.9% | 4.4% | 1% | 3.4 pts |
| SpaceXAI | 1.4% | 1.4% | — | not on both |
| Baidu | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1% | 1.1 pts |
| Moonshot AI | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [LiveBench.ai](https://livebench.ai/#/?Coding=a&Data+Analysis=a&Language=a&IF=a&sort=Coding+Average).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on January 31, 2027, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/which-company-has-the-best-ai-agent-end-of-january
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-agent-end-of-january-2027?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcodingmodel?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/which-company-has-the-best-ai-agent-end-of-january

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.