# Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of December?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of December?". Anthropic leads at 75.6%. Next is OpenAI at 14.5%. $1.2M has traded across 23 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:24:00Z (3 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $1.2M
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Anthropic | 75.6% | 71.5% | 77% | 5.5 pts |
| OpenAI | 14.5% | 16% | 14% | 2.0 pts |
| Moonshot | 6% | 6% | — | not on both |
| Google | 5.7% | 7.9% | 5% | 2.9 pts |
| ByteDance | 5.6% | 5.6% | — | not on both |
| Xiaomi | 5.5% | 5.5% | — | not on both |
| MiniMax | 5.5% | 5.5% | — | not on both |
| StepFun | 5.4% | 5.4% | — | not on both |
| Tencent | 5% | 5% | — | not on both |
| Meta | 4.9% | 4.9% | — | not on both |
| Mistral | 4.9% | 4.9% | — | not on both |
| Amazon | 4.5% | 4.5% | — | not on both |
| Nvidia | 4.5% | 4.5% | — | not on both |
| Microsoft | 4.3% | 4.3% | — | not on both |
| SpaceXAI | 4% | 4% | — | not on both |
| Meituan | 3.3% | 3.3% | — | not on both |
| Thinky | 3.1% | 3.1% | — | not on both |
| Alibaba | 2.1% | 5.4% | 1% | 4.4 pts |
| Z.ai | 2.1% | 5.3% | 1% | 4.3 pts |
| xAI | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| DeepSeek | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1% | 1.6 pts |
| Moonshot AI | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Baidu | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1% | 0.5 pts |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [LiveBench.ai](https://livebench.ai/#/?Coding=a&Data+Analysis=a&Language=a&IF=a&sort=Coding+Average).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-on-livebench-coding-end-of-december
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-on-livebench-coding-end-of-december-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcodingmodel?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-on-livebench-coding-end-of-december

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.