# Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of January?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of January?". Anthropic leads at 67.4%. Next is Nvidia at 12.3%. $1.2M has traded across 23 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:14:00Z (4 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Feb 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $1.2M
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Anthropic | 67.4% | 38.5% | 77% | 38.5 pts |
| Nvidia | 12.3% | 12.3% | — | not on both |
| Google | 12.1% | 33.5% | 5% | 28.5 pts |
| OpenAI | 11.6% | 4.5% | 14% | 9.5 pts |
| Mistral | 11.4% | 11.4% | — | not on both |
| Meta | 7% | 7% | — | not on both |
| Thinky | 5.6% | 5.6% | — | not on both |
| Amazon | 5.5% | 5.5% | — | not on both |
| SpaceXAI | 5.4% | 5.4% | — | not on both |
| StepFun | 5% | 5% | — | not on both |
| Microsoft | 4.8% | 4.8% | — | not on both |
| Xiaomi | 4.8% | 4.8% | — | not on both |
| Tencent | 4.8% | 4.8% | — | not on both |
| Moonshot | 4.6% | 4.6% | — | not on both |
| Meituan | 3.7% | 3.7% | — | not on both |
| ByteDance | 3.6% | 3.6% | — | not on both |
| MiniMax | 3.1% | 3.1% | — | not on both |
| xAI | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Z.ai | 1.9% | 4.6% | 1% | 3.5 pts |
| Alibaba | 1.7% | 3.9% | 1% | 2.9 pts |
| Baidu | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1% | 0.6 pts |
| Moonshot AI | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| DeepSeek | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1% | 0.4 pts |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [LiveBench.ai](https://livebench.ai/#/?Coding=a&Data+Analysis=a&Language=a&IF=a&sort=Coding+Average).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on January 31, 2027, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/which-company-has-the-best-text-arena-math-ai-model-end-of-january
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-text-arena-math-ai-model-end-of-january-2027?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcodingmodel?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/which-company-has-the-best-text-arena-math-ai-model-end-of-january

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.