# Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2027?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2027?". Syria leads at 35.5%. Next is Qatar at 32.5%. $26K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T05:21:41Z (13 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2028
- Volume traded: $26K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Syria | 35.5% | 35.5% |
| Qatar | 32.5% | 32.5% |
| Egypt | 30.5% | 30.5% |
| Iran | 21.5% | 21.5% |
| Jordan | 21.5% | 21.5% |
| Kuwait | 21.5% | 21.5% |
| Bahrain | 20% | 20% |
| Bangladesh | 20% | 20% |
| Yemen | 15.5% | 15.5% |
| Algeria | 15% | 15% |
| Morocco | 14.5% | 14.5% |
| Somalia | 14% | 14% |
| Sudan | 14% | 14% |
| United Arab Emirates | 14% | 14% |
| Lebanon | 13% | 13% |
| Iraq | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Oman | 8.5% | 8.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all. The agreement has subsequently been described by its signatories as open to additional countries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country formally joins the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The listed country will be considered to have formally joined if either of the following occurs:
- the country signs the Agreement or a formal accession protocol or instrument that, by its terms or official characterization, makes it a party, member, or signatory; or
- the country and the Agreement’s existing parties officially announce, jointly or separately, that the country has become a party, member, or signatory.

Statements of intent, applications, invitations to join, negotiations, parliamentary authorization, approval in principle, or general defense cooperation will not qualify. A separate bilateral or multilateral defense agreement will not qualify unless it is officially identified as accession to the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement.

Once a qualifying accession has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent withdrawal, suspension, reversal, or termination.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, and the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/which-countries-will-join-the-mecca-agreement-by-december-31-2027
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-join-the-mecca-agreement-by-december-31-2027?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/which-countries-will-join-the-mecca-agreement-by-december-31-2027

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.