# Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in 2027?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in 2027?". No Return to Normal Traffic in 2027 leads at 26.5%. Next is August 2027 at 11.8%. $3K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T05:22:31Z (14 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Feb 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $3K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| No Return to Normal Traffic in 2027 | 26.5% | 31.5% |
| August 2027 | 11.8% | 14% |
| February 2027 | 8% | 9.5% |
| June 2027 | 7.6% | 9% |
| April 2027 | 7.2% | 8.5% |
| October 2027 | 7.2% | 8.5% |
| January 2027 | 5.5% | 6.5% |
| November 2027 | 5.5% | 6.5% |
| September 2027 | 5% | 6% |
| July 2027 | 4.6% | 5.5% |
| March 2027 | 4.3% | 5.1% |
| May 2027 | 3.8% | 4.5% |
| December 2027 | 3% | 3.6% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [portwatch.imf.org](https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar month containing the first date from January 1, 2027 to December 31, 2027 for which the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, according to IMF PortWatch, is at least 60. If no such date occurs, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2027”.

IMF PortWatch typically publishes a rounded 7-day moving average in the chart on its chokepoint page and an unrounded figure in its downloadable files. The figure shown in the chart will be used for settlement. If the chart is unavailable, the downloadable figure, rounded to the nearest whole number, will be used.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a qualifying 7-day moving average, or once IMF PortWatch has published data for every date in the period with no qualifying 7-day moving average. Revisions made after that point will not be considered, unless subject to the data integrity clause below. If any data is still unpublished 14 calendar days after the period’s final date, this market will resolve on the most recent data published at that time.

In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the Transit Calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/which-month-will-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-return-to-normal-in-2027
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-month-will-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-return-to-normal-in-2027?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/which-month-will-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-return-to-normal-in-2027

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.