# Which parties will support the new Israeli government in the vote of confidence by February 28?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Which parties will support the new Israeli government in the vote of confidence by February 28?". Bennett 2026 leads at 65%. Next is Yashar at 61%. $1K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-11T09:04:05Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Mar 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Bennett 2026 | 65% | 65% |
| Yashar | 61% | 61% |
| Ra'am | 60.5% | 60.5% |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | 59.5% | 59.5% |
| Homat Torat Yisrael | 59% | 59% |
| Yesh Atid | 58% | 58% |
| The Democrats | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| Degel HaTorah | 46% | 46% |
| Ta'al | 46% | 46% |
| Agudat Yisrael | 45% | 45% |
| Likud | 43% | 43% |
| Religious Zionist Party | 42.5% | 42.5% |
| Zehut | 42.5% | 42.5% |
| Balad | 37.5% | 37.5% |
| Otzma Yehudit | 37.5% | 37.5% |
| Shas | 37.5% | 37.5% |
| Hadash | 29.5% | 29.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [main.knesset.gov.il](https://main.knesset.gov.il).

## Settlement rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset took place on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a majority of the listed political party's Members of the Knesset vote "For" in the first vote of confidence in a new Israeli government held following the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market may resolve once the result of this vote of confidence is officially confirmed.

A party's Members of the Knesset are defined as the members listed under that party in the "List of members-elect" section of the 26th Knesset Wikipedia page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/26th_Knesset#List_of_members-elect) as of 12:00 PM ET on November 3, 2026. A majority means more than half of these Members; Members who vote "Against", abstain, are absent, or otherwise do not vote "For" will not count toward the majority.

If no such vote of confidence is held, or the results are not known definitively by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Only a vote of confidence held by the 26th Knesset, elected on October 27, 2026, will be considered. If the 26th Knesset is dissolved and a new election is called before such a vote is held, this market will resolve to "No". Votes of confidence held after any subsequent Knesset election will not be considered.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/which-parties-will-support-the-new-israeli-government-in-the-vote-of-confidence-by-february-28
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-support-the-new-israeli-government-in-the-vote-of-confidence-by-february-28?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/which-parties-will-support-the-new-israeli-government-in-the-vote-of-confidence-by-february-28

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.