# Which states will pass a new congressional map before the 2028 election?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Which states will pass a new congressional map before the 2028 election?". New York leads at 82.5%. Next is Wisconsin at 75.5%. $1K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-11T09:03:05Z (9 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 7, 2028
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| New York | 82.5% | 82.5% |
| Wisconsin | 75.5% | 75.5% |
| Illinois | 72% | 72% |
| Indiana | 71% | 71% |
| Maryland | 70.5% | 70.5% |
| Pennsylvania | 56.5% | 56.5% |
| Mississippi | 51.5% | 51.5% |
| Minnesota | 44.5% | 44.5% |
| Colorado | 38% | 38% |
| South Carolina | 35% | 35% |
| Kansas | 33% | 33% |
| Washington | 29.5% | 29.5% |
| Oregon | 27.5% | 27.5% |
| New Jersey | 26.5% | 26.5% |
| Arizona | 22.5% | 22.5% |
| Virginia | 20.5% | 20.5% |
| Missouri | 6% | 6% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [each state's official government websites](https://www.usa.gov/state-local-governments), [the Associated Press](https://apnews.com/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/which-states-will-pass-a-new-congressional-map-before-the-2028-election
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxredistrictlaw?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/which-states-will-pass-a-new-congressional-map-before-the-2028-election

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.