# Which Tossup Senate States Will Republicans Win? (AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX): prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Which Tossup Senate States Will Republicans Win? (AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX)". None leads at 21.5%. Next is IA, KS at 11%. $14.8M has traded across 128 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-10-31T21:00:47Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2026
- Volume traded: $14.8M
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| None | 21.5% | 22.5% |
| IA, KS | 11% | 11.5% |
| IA | 10.4% | 10.9% |
| KS | 4.6% | 4.9% |
| All 7 | 4.3% | 4.5% |
| IA, OH | 1.9% | 2% |
| ME | 1.8% | 1.9% |
| AK | 1.5% | 1.6% |
| OH | 1.5% | 1.6% |
| AK, IA | 1.3% | 1.4% |
| AK, KS | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| IA, OH | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| IA, ME, OH, TX | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX | 0.9% | 1% |
| IA, ME | 0.9% | 1% |
| IA, ME | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| IA, ME, OH, TX | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| IA, MI | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| MI | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| TX | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| AK, IA, KS, OH, TX | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| AK, KS | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| AK, MI, OH | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| IA, KS, ME, OH, TX | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| IA, MI | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| KS, ME, MI, OH | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| AK, IA, KS, ME, TX | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| AK, KS, TX | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| IA, ME, OH, TX | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| IA, ME, OH, TX | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| IA, OH | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| KS, ME | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| KS, TX | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| AK, IA, KS, ME, MI | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| AK, KS, TX | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| AK, KS, TX | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| IA, KS, ME, MI, OH | 0.5% | 0.6% |

Showing the top 40 of 128 outcomes. 
"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs.

Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. 

A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/which-tossup-senate-states-will-republicans-win-ak-ia-ks-me-mi-oh-tx
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-tossup-senate-states-will-republicans-win-ak-ia-ks-me-mi-oh-tx?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/which-tossup-senate-states-will-republicans-win-ak-ia-ks-me-mi-oh-tx

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.