# Who leaves the Trump administration first: Rubio or Hegseth?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Who leaves the Trump administration first: Rubio or Hegseth?". Pete Hegseth leads at 66%. Next is Yes at 38.5%. $5K has traded across 4 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-11T05:08:05Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2028
- Volume traded: $5K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Pete Hegseth | 66% | — | 66% | not on both |
| Yes | 38.5% | 38.5% | — | not on both |
| Marco Rubio | 26% | — | 26% | not on both |
| None | 10% | — | 10% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/), [the Associated Press](https://apnews.com/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to the name of the individual who leaves the Trump administration first.

This market will resolve to "Rubio" if Marco Rubio leaves the Trump administration before Pete Hegseth leaves the Trump administration. This market will resolve to "Hegseth" if Pete Hegseth leaves the Trump administration before Marco Rubio leaves the Trump administration.

An individual will be considered to have left the Trump administration if it is announced that they will leave the Trump Administration, or they otherwise cease to be a member of the administration. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal will count as of the time of the announcement, regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If both individuals remain in the Trump administration uninterruptedly from market creation through December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both individuals announce their departure on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve 50-50.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/who-leaves-the-trump-administration-first-rubio-or-hegseth
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-leaves-the-trump-administration-first-rubio-or-hegseth?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrubiohegsethfirst?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/who-leaves-the-trump-administration-first-rubio-or-hegseth

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.