# Who will be a part of the next government of New Zealand?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Who will be a part of the next government of New Zealand?". National leads at 59%. Next is Labour at 55%. $2K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 15, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:15:00Z (4 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Mar 15, 2027
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| National | 59% | 59% |
| Labour | 55% | 55% |
| New Zealand First | 54% | 54% |
| Greens | 53% | 53% |
| Opportunity | 42% | 42% |
| ACT | 41% | 41% |
| Te Pāti Māori | 40% | 40% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [New Zealand Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet](https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/), [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/who-will-be-a-part-of-the-next-government-of-new-zealand
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnzgovt?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/who-will-be-a-part-of-the-next-government-of-new-zealand

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.