# Who will be Brazilian finance minister after the election?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Who will be Brazilian finance minister after the election?". Geraldo Alckmin leads at 36.4%. Next is No Next Minister by Feb 28 at 34.5%. $186K has traded across 33 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-12T22:48:25Z (13 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jul 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $186K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Geraldo Alckmin | 36.4% | 39.5% | 27% | 12.5 pts |
| No Next Minister by Feb 28 | 34.5% | 34.5% | — | not on both |
| Rui Costa | 34.5% | 34.5% | — | not on both |
| Dario Durigan | 21.9% | 21.5% | 23% | 1.5 pts |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 21.3% | 21.3% | — | not on both |
| Naftali Bennett | 15.1% | 15.1% | — | not on both |
| José Múcio | 11.5% | 11.5% | — | not on both |
| Rafael Fonteles | 11% | 8% | 20% | 12.0 pts |
| Fernando Haddad | 8.8% | 10.6% | 7% | 3.6 pts |
| Aloizio Mercadante | 7.2% | 4.6% | 4% | — |
| Bruno Moretti | 6% | — | 6% | not on both |
| Jaques Wagner | 4.9% | 4.9% | — | not on both |
| Rogério Ceron | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4% | 1.2 pts |
| Gabriel Galípolo | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4% | 0.4 pts |
| Camilo Santana | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Celso Amorim | 4% | 4% | — | not on both |
| Renan Filho | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Shaul Meridor | 3.6% | 3.6% | — | not on both |
| Gleisi Hoffmann | 3.4% | 3.4% | — | not on both |
| Paulo Guedes | 2.7% | 2.7% | — | not on both |
| Gadi Eizenkot | 2.5% | 2.5% | — | not on both |
| Israel Katz | 2.5% | 2.5% | — | not on both |
| Yaron Zelekha | 2.4% | 2.4% | — | not on both |
| Simone Tebet | 2.2% | 2.2% | — | not on both |
| Bezalel Smotrich | 1.9% | 1.9% | — | not on both |
| Nir Barkat | 1.2% | 1.2% | — | not on both |
| Yair Lapid | 0.9% | 0.9% | — | not on both |
| Eli Cohen | 0.7% | 0.7% | — | not on both |
| Orit Farkash-Hacohen | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Yair Golan | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |
| Hili Tropper | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |
| Moshe Feiglin | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [the Associated Press](https://apnews.com/), [Bloomberg News](https://www.bloomberg.com), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/who-will-be-brazilian-finance-minister-after-the-election
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-brazilian-minister-of-defense?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbrfinmin?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/who-will-be-brazilian-finance-minister-after-the-election

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.