# Who will be impeached by June 30, 2027?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Who will be impeached by June 30, 2027?". Pete Hegseth - Secretary of Defense leads at 53%. Next is Donald Trump - President at 41.5%. $2K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T22:50:03Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Jul 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Pete Hegseth - Secretary of Defense | 53% | 53% |
| Donald Trump - President | 41.5% | 41.5% |
| Kash Patel - FBI Director | 35.5% | 35.5% |
| Todd Blanche - Attorney General | 28% | 28% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. - Secretary of Health and Human Services | 26.5% | 26.5% |
| Russ Vought - OMB Director | 26.5% | 26.5% |
| Marco Rubio - Secretary of State | 25% | 25% |
| Linda McMahon - Secretary of Education | 19% | 19% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [congress.gov](https://www.congress.gov).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. House of Representatives adopts one or more articles of impeachment against the specified individual in connection with their specified role between market creation and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the U.S. Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to "Yes".

If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office before any article of impeachment is adopted, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. House of Representatives, including the Office of the Clerk and Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/who-will-be-impeached-by-june-30-2027
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-impeached-by-june-30-2027?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/who-will-be-impeached-by-june-30-2027

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.