# Who will be in the 2026 NFL Christmas Day halftime show?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Who will be in the 2026 NFL Christmas Day halftime show?". Adele leads at 31.5%. Next is Mariah Carey at 25%. $3K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 26, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T03:42:40Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 26, 2026
- Volume traded: $3K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: culture

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Adele | 31.5% | 31.5% |
| Mariah Carey | 25% | 25% |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 19.5% | 19.5% |
| Audrey Nuna | 17.5% | 17.5% |
| Bruno Mars | 17.5% | 17.5% |
| Michael Bublé | 17.5% | 17.5% |
| Post Malone | 17.5% | 17.5% |
| Andrea Bocelli | 16.5% | 16.5% |
| Beyoncé | 16.5% | 16.5% |
| Kacey Musgraves | 16.5% | 16.5% |
| Lady Gaga | 16.5% | 16.5% |
| Kelly Clarkson | 15.5% | 15.5% |
| Martha Stewart | 13.5% | 13.5% |
| Lainey Wilson | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Snoop Dogg | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Rei Ami | 8% | 8% |
| EJAE | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Taylor Swift | 5.5% | 5.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

Netflix's NFL Christmas Day games are scheduled to be played on December 25, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person appears in a Netflix NFL Christmas Day Halftime Show. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A person will be considered to appear in a Netflix NFL Christmas Day Halftime Show if they appear live and in person on the official broadcast within one of the following areas: i) the field of play, including the end zones; ii) any surrounding field-level areas below the first level of stands, such as the sidelines, areas behind the end zones, and tunnels leading directly onto the field; or iii) any set, stage, rig, or platform built for the Halftime Show, wherever it stands in the stadium. No particular activity is required, and the length of the appearance does not impact resolution. 

The official broadcast refers to Netflix's primary telecast of its National Football League games played on December 25, 2026.

A Halftime Show is the entertainment program staged at the stadium between the second and third quarters of a Netflix NFL Christmas Day game and presented in the official broadcast, from the start of the program to its conclusion.

The following will not qualify absent an appearance in a Netflix NFL Christmas Day Halftime Show as defined above: attendance at a Netflix NFL Christmas Day game; an appearance on the official broadcast outside the designated areas, including in the stands, a suite, or another spectator area; an appearance before a Halftime Show begins or after it ends, including a rehearsal or soundcheck; or an appearance that is not live and in person, including a pre-recorded segment, a remote, satellite, holographic, or digitally projected appearance, or an artificial simulation or recreation of the listed person.

If the official broadcast is unavailable for any period during a Halftime Show, an appearance occurring only during that period qualifies only if the NFL or Netflix releases video of the listed person appearing in the Halftime Show by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the game. Official video released by the NFL and Netflix includes video published later in the official broadcast, on their official website, application, streaming service, or official social media accounts. If the broadcast does not become unavailable during a Halftime Show, non-broadcast videos will not qualify for resolution.

If no Netflix NFL Christmas Day Halftime Show takes place by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be the official broadcast of Netflix's NFL Christmas Day games; however, videos of the Netflix NFL Christmas Day Halftime Show released by Netflix and the NFL may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/who-will-be-in-the-2026-nfl-christmas-day-halftime-show
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-in-the-2026-nfl-christmas-day-halftime-show?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/who-will-be-in-the-2026-nfl-christmas-day-halftime-show

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.