# Who will be Knesset Speaker after the election?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Who will be Knesset Speaker after the election?". December 31 leads at 75.5%. Next is November 30 at 58%. $25K has traded across 34 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:06:00Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Oct 27, 2027
- Volume traded: $25K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| December 31 | 75.5% | 75.5% | — | not on both |
| November 30 | 58% | 58% | — | not on both |
| Yair Lapid | 51.4% | 50% | 52% | 2.0 pts |
| November 13 | 42% | 42% | — | not on both |
| Yariv Levin | 29.5% | 29.5% | — | not on both |
| Orna Barbivai | 26.8% | 26.8% | — | not on both |
| Avi Dichter | 26.5% | 26.5% | — | not on both |
| Gadi Eisenkot | 24.5% | 27% | 22% | 5.0 pts |
| Ahmad Tibi | 24% | 24% | — | not on both |
| David Amsalem | 23% | 23% | — | not on both |
| Matan Kahana | 22.6% | 29% | 6% | 23.0 pts |
| Miki Zohar | 22.6% | 22.6% | — | not on both |
| No speaker by Feb 28 | 20.5% | 20.5% | — | not on both |
| Elazar Stern | 19.5% | 25% | 14% | 11.0 pts |
| Eli Cohen | 19.5% | 19.5% | — | not on both |
| Mickey Levy | 19.5% | 19.5% | — | not on both |
| Naftali Bennett | 16.1% | 29.6% | 2.5% | 27.1 pts |
| Hili Tropper | 16% | 16% | — | not on both |
| Oded Forer | 9.8% | 11.8% | 9% | 2.7 pts |
| Chili Tropper | 9% | — | 9% | not on both |
| Orit Farkash Hacohen | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8% | 0.5 pts |
| Eitan Ginzburg | 7.5% | 7.5% | — | not on both |
| Amir Ohana | 6.8% | 8% | 6% | 2.0 pts |
| Gilad Kariv | 6.5% | 7% | 5% | 2.0 pts |
| Ofir Katz | 3.9% | 4.9% | 1% | 3.9 pts |
| Merav Ben Ari | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4% | 0.4 pts |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Ram Ben-Barak | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Yair Golan | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Yuli Edelstein | 2.2% | 2.2% | — | not on both |
| Boaz Bismuth | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Meirav Cohen | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Vladimir Beliak | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| November 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [The Knesset](https://main.knesset.gov.il/en/Pages/default.aspx).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/who-will-be-knesset-speaker-after-the-election
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-speaker-of-the-knesset-20261019103128390?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxisrspeaker?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/who-will-be-knesset-speaker-after-the-election

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.