# Who will be the first Republican listed to announce a presidential run?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the first Republican listed to announce a presidential run?". Andy Beshear leads at 25%. Next is Ron DeSantis at 24%. $36K has traded across 50 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-07T22:53:03Z (8 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 7, 2028
- Volume traded: $36K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Andy Beshear | 25% | 25% | — | not on both |
| Ron DeSantis | 24% | 24% | 24% | 0.0 pts |
| J.D. Vance | 23.5% | 26% | 21% | 5.0 pts |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 23.2% | 23.2% | — | not on both |
| Pete Buttigieg | 20.5% | 20.5% | — | not on both |
| Ro Khanna | 17% | 17% | — | not on both |
| Gavin Newsom | 15.3% | 15.3% | — | not on both |
| Rahm Emanuel | 14.5% | 14.5% | — | not on both |
| Ted Cruz | 14% | 17% | 5% | 12.0 pts |
| Marco Rubio | 12.5% | 8.9% | 16% | 7.1 pts |
| Josh Shapiro | 8.6% | 8.6% | — | not on both |
| Kamala Harris | 8.5% | 8.5% | — | not on both |
| Rand Paul | 5.4% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 5.8 pts |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Joe Kent | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| John McEntee | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Thomas Massie | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 3.9% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 2.8 pts |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 3.8% | 3.8% | — | not on both |
| Donald Trump | 3.8% | 3.8% | — | not on both |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 3.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.9 pts |
| Brian Kemp | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Byron Donalds | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Chris Christie | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Doug Burgum | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Elise Stefanik | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Greg Abbott | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Gregory Bovino | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Ivanka Trump | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Jared Kushner | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Jeff Bezos | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Joe Kent | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Josh Hawley | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Katie Britt | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Larry Hogan | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Mike Pence | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Nikki Haley | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Pete Hegseth | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |

Showing the top 40 of 50 outcomes. 
"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ABC](https://abcnews.go.com/), [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/), [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/who-will-be-the-first-republican-listed-to-announce-a-presidential-run
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-of-these-democrats-will-be-the-first-to-announce-a-run-for-president-20260709150125604?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdeclarepresfirstr?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/who-will-be-the-first-republican-listed-to-announce-a-presidential-run

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.