# Who will Conor McGregor fight next?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Who will Conor McGregor fight next?". Max Holloway leads at 32.6%. Next is Michael Chandler at 22.3%. $30K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-08T20:51:13Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2028
- Volume traded: $30K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Max Holloway | 32.6% | 33.8% | 29% | 4.8 pts |
| Michael Chandler | 22.3% | 25% | 14% | 11.0 pts |
| Nate Diaz | 10.9% | 12.5% | 6% | 6.5 pts |
| Justin Gaethje | 6% | — | 6% | not on both |
| Kevin Holland | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Ian Garry | 3.8% | 3.8% | — | not on both |
| Paddy Pimblett | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Charles Oliveira | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Dustin Poirier | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Ian Garry | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Ilia Topuria | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Kamaru Usman | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Leon Edwards | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Renato Moicano | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Jorge Masvidal | 2.3% | 2.3% | — | not on both |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Dan Hooker | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| King Green | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Mauricio Ruffy | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Rafael Fiziev | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ESPN](https://espn.com), [the Governing League](https://www.ufc.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/who-will-conor-mcgregor-fight-next-1
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-who-will-conor-mcgregor-fight-next-20260810225625092?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmmafightnext?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/who-will-conor-mcgregor-fight-next-1

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.