# Who will dissent at the December Fed meeting?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Who will dissent at the December Fed meeting?". 25 bps increase leads at 77.5%. Next is 0 at 71%. $12.9M has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 9, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:21:14Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 9, 2026
- Volume traded: $12.9M
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 25 bps increase | 77.5% | 77.5% | — | not on both |
| 0 | 71% | 71% | — | not on both |
| No change | 21.5% | 21.5% | — | not on both |
| Beth Hammack | 15% | — | 15% | not on both |
| Lisa Cook | 15% | — | 15% | not on both |
| Michelle Bowman | 14.5% | — | 14.5% | not on both |
| Lorie Logan | 13% | — | 13% | not on both |
| Neel Kashkari | 12.5% | — | 12.5% | not on both |
| 1 | 12.4% | 12.4% | — | not on both |
| 2 | 12.2% | 12.2% | — | not on both |
| Christopher Waller | 10% | — | 10% | not on both |
| Michael Barr | 8.5% | — | 8.5% | not on both |
| 3 | 5.5% | 5.5% | — | not on both |
| Philip Jefferson | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Anna Paulson | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| John Williams | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| 4+ | 3.7% | 3.7% | — | not on both |
| Jerome Powell | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Kevin Warsh | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| 50+ bps increase | 0.8% | 0.8% | — | not on both |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [federalreserve.gov](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Federal Reserve Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/who-will-dissent-at-the-december-fed-meeting
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-dissent-at-the-december-fed-meeting-20260730000304473?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddissent?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/who-will-dissent-at-the-december-fed-meeting

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.