# Who will join Trump at APEC in China?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Who will join Trump at APEC in China?". Before Jan 1, 2027 leads at 99%. Next is Scott Bessent at 95.6%. $35K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T02:20:40Z (4 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $35K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Scott Bessent | 95.6% | 95.6% | — | not on both |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 94% | — | 94% | not on both |
| Elon Musk | 92.1% | 92.1% | — | not on both |
| Marco Rubio | 91% | 91% | — | not on both |
| Tim Cook | 63% | 63% | — | not on both |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 30.9% | 30.9% | — | not on both |
| Jared Kushner | 21% | 21% | — | not on both |
| Sam Altman | 15% | 15% | — | not on both |
| Steve Witkoff | 12.5% | 12.5% | — | not on both |
| Eric Trump | 6% | 6% | — | not on both |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 5.5% | 5.5% | — | not on both |
| Barron Trump | 4% | 4% | — | not on both |
| Melania Trump | 4% | 4% | — | not on both |
| Jensen Huang | 1.9% | 1.9% | — | not on both |
| J.D. Vance | 1.2% | 1.2% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [The White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/), [Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China](https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/), [the Associated Press](https://apnews.com/).

## Settlement rules

Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China to attend the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen on November 18-19, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any portion of this visit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present at any meeting or event in China which Donald Trump attends during this visit and for which officials from both the government of the United States and the government of China are present.

If Donald Trump does not visit China by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to "No".

The visit will be considered to have ended once Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory. No meetings or events which start after this time will be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and China; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/who-will-join-trump-at-apec-in-china
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-join-trump-at-apec-in-china?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpchina?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/who-will-join-trump-at-apec-in-china

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.