# Who will leave the Trump administration before 2028?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Who will leave the Trump administration before 2028?". Kash Patel leads at 93%. Next is Tom Homan at 67%. $13K has traded across 40 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-09T17:12:20Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2028
- Volume traded: $13K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Kash Patel | 93% | — | 93% | not on both |
| Tom Homan | 67% | — | 67% | not on both |
| Rodney Scott | 52.5% | — | 52.5% | not on both |
| Pete Hegseth | 43.3% | 28% | 89% | 61.0 pts |
| Steven Cheung | 37% | — | 37% | not on both |
| Brad Cooper | 35% | — | 35% | not on both |
| Mike Huckabee | 35% | — | 35% | not on both |
| Steve Witkoff | 35% | — | 35% | not on both |
| Dan Caine | 34% | — | 34% | not on both |
| Marco Rubio | 33.4% | 20.5% | 72% | 51.5 pts |
| Kelly Loeffler | 32.4% | 3.9% | 61% | 57.1 pts |
| Kevin Hassett | 31% | — | 31% | not on both |
| Peter Navarro | 30% | — | 30% | not on both |
| Howard Lutnick | 29.1% | 16.5% | 67% | 50.5 pts |
| Bill Pulte | 29% | — | 29% | not on both |
| Jamieson Greer | 28.1% | 8.7% | 47.5% | 38.8 pts |
| Christopher Landau | 28% | — | 28% | not on both |
| Linda McMahon | 25.6% | 12.5% | 65% | 52.5 pts |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 25.2% | 4% | 89% | 85.0 pts |
| Scott Turner | 23.1% | 0.6% | 45.5% | 44.9 pts |
| Russell T. Vought | 22% | — | 22% | not on both |
| Mehmet Oz | 21% | — | 21% | not on both |
| Brendan Carr | 19% | — | 19% | not on both |
| Doug Burgum | 18.6% | 4.2% | 62% | 57.9 pts |
| Scott Bessent | 18.6% | 4.1% | 62% | 57.9 pts |
| Lee Zeldin | 12.1% | 8.5% | 23% | 14.5 pts |
| Stephen Miller | 10.9% | 2.4% | 23% | 20.7 pts |
| Todd Blanche | 10.7% | 3.3% | 33% | 29.7 pts |
| Brooke Rollins | 9.6% | 4.5% | 25% | 20.5 pts |
| Sean Duffy | 9.4% | 3.9% | 26% | 22.1 pts |
| John Ratcliffe | 9.2% | 4.2% | 24% | 19.8 pts |
| Chris Wright | 8.5% | 1.7% | 29% | 27.3 pts |
| Doug Collins | 8.3% | 2.1% | 27% | 25.0 pts |
| Mike Waltz | 5% | 0.6% | 18% | 17.4 pts |
| Russell T. Vought | 3.8% | 3.8% | — | not on both |
| None before 2029 | 2.1% | 2.1% | — | not on both |
| Jay Clayton | 1.6% | 1.6% | — | not on both |
| Markwayne Mullin | 1.3% | 1.3% | — | not on both |
| J.D. Vance | 0.7% | 0.7% | — | not on both |
| Keith Sonderling | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [The White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/), [official government records and registries](https://www.federalregister.gov/), [the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/who-will-leave-the-trump-administration-before-2028
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet-before-2029?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpadminleave?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/who-will-leave-the-trump-administration-before-2028

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.