# Who will leave the Trump administration before Jul 2027?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Who will leave the Trump administration before Jul 2027?". Pete Hegseth leads at 49.9%. Next is Chris Wright at 49.5%. $2.2M has traded across 38 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-08T20:35:13Z (16 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jul 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $2.2M
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Pete Hegseth | 49.9% | 40.5% | 78% | 37.5 pts |
| Chris Wright | 49.5% | — | 49.5% | not on both |
| Kevin Hassett | 49.5% | — | 49.5% | not on both |
| Linda McMahon | 43.5% | — | 43.5% | not on both |
| Brooke Rollins | 42.5% | — | 42.5% | not on both |
| Kelly Loeffler | 42.5% | — | 42.5% | not on both |
| Peter Navarro | 40% | — | 40% | not on both |
| Jamieson Greer | 39.5% | — | 39.5% | not on both |
| Doug Collins | 38.5% | — | 38.5% | not on both |
| Rodney Scott | 38.5% | — | 38.5% | not on both |
| Scott Turner | 38.5% | — | 38.5% | not on both |
| Sean Duffy | 38.5% | — | 38.5% | not on both |
| Brendan Carr | 33.5% | — | 33.5% | not on both |
| Marco Rubio | 31.9% | 11.5% | 93% | 81.5 pts |
| Kash Patel | 31.9% | 18.5% | 72% | 53.5 pts |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 27.6% | 13.5% | 70% | 56.5 pts |
| Scott Bessent | 27.6% | 7.8% | 87% | 79.2 pts |
| Tom Homan | 27% | 7% | 47% | 40.0 pts |
| Steven Cheung | 27% | — | 27% | not on both |
| Brad Cooper | 25% | — | 25% | not on both |
| Doug Burgum | 25% | — | 25% | not on both |
| Steve Witkoff | 25% | — | 25% | not on both |
| Kristi Noem | 25% | 25% | — | not on both |
| Howard Lutnick | 24.1% | 15.5% | 50% | 34.5 pts |
| John Ratcliffe | 23.5% | 11.5% | 35.5% | 24.0 pts |
| Todd Blanche | 23% | — | 23% | not on both |
| Lee Zeldin | 21% | 7.5% | 34.5% | 27.0 pts |
| Mike Huckabee | 21% | — | 21% | not on both |
| Christopher Landau | 20% | — | 20% | not on both |
| Dan Caine | 20% | — | 20% | not on both |
| Markwayne Mullin | 15.5% | 15.5% | — | not on both |
| Mehmet Oz | 14% | — | 14% | not on both |
| Bill Pulte | 11% | — | 11% | not on both |
| Mike Waltz | 11% | — | 11% | not on both |
| Russell Vought | 10.4% | 8.5% | 16% | 7.5 pts |
| Stephen Miller | 9.9% | 6.2% | 21% | 14.8 pts |
| Dan Scavino | 6.5% | 6.5% | — | not on both |
| David Sacks | 6.1% | 6.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [The White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/), [official government records and registries](https://www.federalregister.gov/), [the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/who-will-leave-the-trump-administration-before-jul-2027
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpadminleave?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/who-will-leave-the-trump-administration-before-jul-2027

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.