# Who will leave Trump Administration before 2028?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2028?". Tom Homan leads at 81.6%. Next is Kevin Hassett at 77%. $133K has traded across 45 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T05:21:41Z (13 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2028
- Volume traded: $133K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Tom Homan | 81.6% | 52% | 96% | 44.0 pts |
| Kevin Hassett | 77% | — | 77% | not on both |
| Howard Lutnick | 62.2% | 71% | 45% | — |
| Kash Patel | 59% | 54% | 74% | 20.0 pts |
| Dan Caine | 51% | — | 51% | not on both |
| Mike Huckabee | 49% | — | 49% | not on both |
| Brad Cooper | 43% | — | 43% | not on both |
| Steven Cheung | 42% | — | 42% | not on both |
| Steve Witkoff | 41% | — | 41% | not on both |
| David Sacks | 37% | 37% | — | not on both |
| Peter Navarro | 37% | — | 37% | not on both |
| Pete Hegseth | 36.5% | 45% | 13% | — |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 36.2% | 54% | 8.9% | — |
| Bill Pulte | 36% | — | 36% | not on both |
| Mehmet Oz | 35% | — | 35% | not on both |
| Sean Duffy | 35% | — | 19% | not on both |
| Kelly Loeffler | 29.2% | — | 2.9% | not on both |
| Marco Rubio | 28.6% | 34.5% | 7% | — |
| Scott Bessent | 28.5% | 28.5% | 1.1% | — |
| Linda McMahon | 28.5% | — | 4.9% | not on both |
| Christopher Landau | 28% | — | 28% | not on both |
| Kristi Noem | 27.5% | 27.5% | — | not on both |
| Todd Blanche | 27.3% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Dan Scavino | 27% | 27% | — | not on both |
| Brendan Carr | 26% | — | 26% | not on both |
| Rodney Scott | 26% | — | 26% | not on both |
| Doug Burgum | 21.9% | — | 2.7% | not on both |
| Markwayne Mullin | 19.5% | 52.5% | 8.5% | 44.0 pts |
| Before 2029 | 18.5% | — | 18.5% | not on both |
| John Ratcliffe | 18.4% | 26.5% | 2.9% | — |
| Chris Wright | 17.8% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Lee Zeldin | 17.6% | 19.5% | 1.2% | — |
| Stephen Miller | 16.5% | 22.5% | 4.4% | — |
| Russell Vought | 16.3% | 17.5% | 1.1% | — |
| Brooke Rollins | 15.2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Before 2028 | 13.5% | — | 13.5% | not on both |
| Jamieson Greer | 8.9% | — | 2.9% | not on both |
| Mike Waltz | 8.1% | — | 1.8% | not on both |
| Doug Collins | 7.6% | — | 1.1% | not on both |
| Scott Turner | 7.1% | — | 1.1% | not on both |

Showing the top 40 of 45 outcomes. 
"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [White House](https://whitehouse.gov/), [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2028
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2028?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusmca?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2028

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.