# Who will the House impeach first before 2028?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Who will the House impeach first before 2028?". Pete Hegseth leads at 37.9%. Next is Donald Trump at 25.5%. $4K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:05:00Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2028
- Volume traded: $4K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Pete Hegseth | 37.9% | 46% |
| Donald Trump | 25.5% | 31% |
| None of these | 18.9% | 23% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 5.8% | 7% |
| Howard Lutnick | 4.9% | 6% |
| Todd Blanche | 4.1% | 5% |
| JD Vance | 2.9% | 3.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/), [the Associated Press](https://apnews.com/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/who-will-the-house-impeach-first-before-2028
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kximpeachfirst?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/who-will-the-house-impeach-first-before-2028

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.