# Who will Trump publicly insult by November 30?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Who will Trump publicly insult by November 30?". Barack Obama leads at 99.4%. Next is Dividend / Stimulus at 99%. $65K has traded across 35 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T02:12:00Z (23 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $65K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Barack Obama | 99.4% | 99.4% | — | not on both |
| Dividend / Stimulus | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| E15 | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Eli Lilly | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Filibuster | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| UFC | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Aluminum | 90% | — | 90% | not on both |
| Kaitlan Collins | 89% | 89% | — | not on both |
| Zohran / Mamdani | 89% | — | 89% | not on both |
| Ceasefire | 86% | — | 86% | not on both |
| Rare Earth | 77% | — | 77% | not on both |
| Ilhan Omar | 77% | 77% | — | not on both |
| Elizabeth Warren | 74.5% | 74.5% | — | not on both |
| Hasan Piker | 67.5% | 67.5% | — | not on both |
| TrumpRx | 66% | — | 66% | not on both |
| Autism | 62% | — | 62% | not on both |
| Nvidia | 61% | — | 61% | not on both |
| Hillary Clinton | 57% | 57% | — | not on both |
| Letitia James | 57% | 57% | — | not on both |
| Refinance / Refinanced / Refinancing | 53% | — | 53% | not on both |
| Ozempic / GLP-1 | 50% | — | 50% | not on both |
| Elon Musk | 49.9% | 49.9% | — | not on both |
| Whistleblower | 45% | — | 45% | not on both |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 41% | 41% | — | not on both |
| SMR / Small Modular Reactor | 33% | — | 33% | not on both |
| Stablecoin | 32% | — | 32% | not on both |
| Golden Dome | 31% | — | 31% | not on both |
| Tucker Carlson | 29.5% | 29.5% | — | not on both |
| Manufactured Housing | 21% | — | 21% | not on both |
| Peptide | 19% | — | 19% | not on both |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 14.5% | 14.5% | — | not on both |
| Pope Leo XIV | 8% | 8% | — | not on both |
| Vladimir Putin | 6% | 6% | — | not on both |
| Xi Jinping | 2.8% | 2.8% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ABC](https://abcnews.go.com/), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/), [MSNBC](https://www.msnbc.com/).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify.

Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify.

A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify.

A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare").

A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.

The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-november-30
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-november-30-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-november-30

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.