# Who will win the 2026 Miss Universe competition?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Who will win the 2026 Miss Universe competition?". Philippines leads at 21.9%. Next is Venezuela at 17.6%. $27K has traded across 142 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 4, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T03:14:40Z (12 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 4, 2026
- Volume traded: $27K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: culture

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Philippines | 21.9% | 24.5% | 14% | 10.5 pts |
| Venezuela | 17.6% | 19.2% | 13% | 6.2 pts |
| Puerto Rico | 16.4% | 15.5% | 19% | 3.5 pts |
| France | 15% | 15.5% | 14% | 1.4 pts |
| Mia Dio | 12% | — | 12% | not on both |
| Colombia | 10% | 10% | — | not on both |
| María Alejandra López | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| Chile | 7.4% | 6.5% | 10% | 3.5 pts |
| Cuba | 7% | 7% | — | not on both |
| Netherlands | 6.4% | 6.4% | — | not on both |
| Melissa Núñez | 6% | — | 6% | not on both |
| Emili Denneng | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Vivica Lewandowski | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Egypt | 4.4% | 4.4% | — | not on both |
| USA | 4.4% | 4.4% | — | not on both |
| Nicaragua | 3.4% | 0.2% | 6% | 5.8 pts |
| Luren Márquez | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Marcella Kozinski | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| María Vargas | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Sayuki Ito | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Argentina | 2.9% | 3.6% | 1% | 2.5 pts |
| Abelone Smedsrud | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Abigaëlle Tailamée | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Aideen Howard | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Alara Erıç | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Aleksandra Ivezaj | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Alina Ekaterinecheva | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Aliya Karotkaya | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Angel Bhathal | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Angela Aumonier | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Anna Ličková | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Anna Nikonova | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Arena Zeynalian | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Armandina Cunha | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Belvy Ofori | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Bernella Velinor | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Bruk Belete | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Caleigh-Rose West | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Caroline Porras | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Celina Weil | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |

Showing the top 40 of 142 outcomes. 
"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ABC](https://abcnews.go.com/), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/), [Associated Press](https://apnews.com).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/who-will-win-the-2026-miss-universe-competition
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/miss-universe-2026-winner?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmissuniverse?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/who-will-win-the-2026-miss-universe-competition

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.