# Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027?". Kylian Mbappe leads at 25.8%. Next is Lamine Yamal at 25.6%. $14K has traded across 80 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-03T08:43:21Z (7 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 31, 2027
- Volume traded: $14K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Kylian Mbappe | 25.8% | 23% | 34% | 11.0 pts |
| Lamine Yamal | 25.6% | 25.5% | 26% | 0.5 pts |
| Harry Kane | 15.7% | 7.8% | 33% | 25.2 pts |
| Raphinha | 13.8% | 10% | 25% | 15.0 pts |
| Cole Palmer | 9% | — | 9% | not on both |
| Michael Olise | 7.9% | 8.9% | 5% | 3.8 pts |
| Erling Haaland | 5.4% | 6.9% | 1% | 5.9 pts |
| Desire Doue | 4.4% | 5.5% | 1% | 4.5 pts |
| Jude Bellingham | 2.5% | 4.5% | 0.5% | 4.0 pts |
| Declan Rice | 2.3% | 4.2% | 0.5% | 3.7 pts |
| Ousmane Dembele | 2.2% | 3.9% | 0.5% | 3.4 pts |
| Vitinha | 2.1% | 3.7% | 0.5% | 3.2 pts |
| Julian Alvarez | 1.6% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 2.2 pts |
| Rodri | 1.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 2.0 pts |
| Bukayo Saka | 1.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 1.3 pts |
| Fabian Ruiz | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.1 pts |
| William Saliba | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.1 pts |
| Alexander Isak | 1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Luis Diaz | 1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Marc Cucurella | 1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Bruno Fernandes | 1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Mohamed Salah | 1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Alisson Becker | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Achraf Hakimi | 1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.9 pts |
| Joao Neves | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.8 pts |
| Lautaro Martinez | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.8 pts |
| Lionel Messi | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1 pts |
| Arda Guler | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Bradley Barcola | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Dani Olmo | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| David Raya | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Dayot Upamecano | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Emiliano Martinez | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Endrick | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Enzo Fernandez | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Estevao | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Federico Valverde | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Ferran Torres | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |

Showing the top 40 of 80 outcomes. 
"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [France Football](https://www.francefootball.fr/), [MSNBC](https://www.msnbc.com/), [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/who-will-win-the-ballon-dor-in-2027
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2027?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxballondor?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/who-will-win-the-ballon-dor-in-2027

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.